Defeating Risk and Mastering Uncertainty – Raphaël de Vittoris

In this new edition of the Managerial Excellence Masterclasses, we have the privilege of welcoming Raphaël de Vittoris, a recognized expert in crisis management and author of the book“Outsmarting Risks”.

Drawing on extensive experience in anticipating threats and implementing resilience strategies, Raphaël invites us to rethink our approach to risk management. He shares his innovative perspectives with us on how to effectively anticipate and manage risks. Ready to discover how to protect your business from the unexpected?

Risks, a challenge more complex than ever

Raphaël de Vittoris quickly addressed the issue of corporate risks, a topic more relevant than ever in the face of health crises, geopolitical events, cyberattacks, and other emerging threats. He observes that traditional risk management methods have often proven ineffective in anticipating and managing crises. In his work, he challenges conventional wisdom on risk management and proposes practical solutions to outsmart them.

Understanding the true nature of risk

Raphaël begins by sharing an essential thought: before attempting to identify all possible risks, it is crucial to ask the question, “For whom are we managing these risks?” This approach involves defining the stakeholders – shareholders, employees, customers, society – and orienting risk management according to these interests.

Indeed, many companies rely too heavily on tools like the Farmer’s diagram, which cross-references the severity and frequency of risks to establish priorities. While this method is comfortable and intuitive, it has a major drawback: it fails to predict certain exceptional events, known as “black swans,” which nevertheless have the potential to disrupt an organization. For Raphaël, knowing how to identify the links between different risks and anticipate their cascading consequences is a key skill.

Five misconceptions about risk management

In his book, Raphaël de Vittoris challenges five misconceptions about risk management. Among them, the first is the idea that risk identification is the main step in the process. According to him, creating a long list of risks is a tedious process that can overwhelm the company and make it unable to effectively address threats. The real question is to understand the company’s ecosystem, its history, its culture, and the stakeholders involved.

Building a pragmatic, resilience-oriented approach

Raphaël encourages companies to adopt a pragmatic approach to risk management:

1. Move beyond statistics: Do not limit yourself to the probabilities of risks occurring. He emphasizes the need to detach from numbers to analyze the potential causes and consequences of risks.
2. Connect risks to each other: He suggests looking for causal links between the different identified risks to better understand their impact. This helps predict “risk cascades,” where one event can trigger others in a chain.
3. Prioritize risks: In a world where risks are increasingly interconnected, it is essential to prioritize management efforts. Raphaël suggests not reducing everything to the financial aspect, but rather considering the overall impact on the company’s survival.
4. Develop imagination: Finally, Raphaël encourages us to use imagination to anticipate improbable scenarios. He cites the example of military training for a zombie invasion, a fictional situation that allows for exploring responses to unexpected threats.

The need for cultural change

Managing risks is not just about ticking boxes or obtaining certifications. It requires a true cultural transformation within the company. Raphaël believes that the overall vision and considering the intuition of people on the ground are crucial. The key lies in decision-making and judgment, particularly in the role of the risk manager, who must be able to oppose management decisions if they do not seem appropriate to protect the company.

In a nutshell…

Raphaël de Vittoris offers us a new and pragmatic perspective on risk management. He reminds us that risk is a complex, often interconnected phenomenon, and that it requires more than a simple list to be effectively managed. He emphasizes the importance of developing a global vision and training to face the unexpected to build a resilient company.

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